The Path To Victory

85% of ‘hotly-contested’ political race winners showed a direct correlation between share of voice in their races and election results

Similar to other, more traditional categories, success achieved by political candidates on election day is typically aided by the adherence to core marketing principles during their campaign.  One of these central tenets is the theory that increased ‘share of voice’ grows ‘share of market’ (or share of votes in the case of the political category).

As the 2020 election cycle kicks into full gear we looked back and analyzed the most competitive, hotly contested races of the 2018 election cycle to understand to what extent TV spend and ‘share of voice’ across candidates impacted election outcomes. Additionally, we also take a look at what races are projected to be hotly contested for this election cycle.

Here are the 5 Insights Essentials from our political report, The Path To Victory. For an in-depth look at our findings, download the full insights report below.

1. There is a direct correlation between ‘share of voice’ and election outcomes
   • Across the 62 ‘hotly contested’ midterm races within our analysis, 85% of the winners had the highest TV SOV amongst all candidates. Check out page 18.
2. Winning candidates typically outspent their competitors on TV by a wide margin
   • On average, the correlated race winners had a distinct ‘share of voice’ advantage of 60% vs. their closest opponent’s average of 33%. Check out page 19.
3. Winners in the Senate and Gubernatorial general election races not only won the SOV battle but they were on air for much longer than their opponents as well
   • On average, winners in both race segments advertised on TV for four weeks longer than their opponent in lead up to election day. Check out page 25.
4. Several different types of candidates utilized TV advertising to change the course of an election
   • The impact of TV has the ability to turn fringe candidates into real contenders and allows them to dethrone incumbents. Check out page 27-30.
5. Connected TV is emerging as a key political ad platform
   • Connected TV / OTT political ad spending is projected to increase 5x vs. the last election cycle. Check out page 44.